Catastrophe and Severe-Weather Alerts

Catastrophe alerts
Rapidly obtaining reliable information on the consequences of a catastrophe — as an actual event unfolds — has become increasingly important for industry and government. AIR provides an online service with up-to-date information and consequence estimates for major natural catastrophes worldwide.

Hurricanes

• The service estimates the consequences of major events, including hurricanes affecting the United States, the Caribbean, Japan, and Australia; extratropical cyclones in Europe; and earthquakes in any of the countries modeled by AIR.
• In the case of U.S. hurricanes, AIR begins posting event information up to 48 hours before projected landfall. AIR simulates hundreds of probability-weighted storm scenarios using the National Hurricane Center’s range of possible storm tracks, wind speeds, and other intensity variables.
• AIR estimates national consequences, as well as client-specific consequences, for all of the storm scenarios.
• AIR posts the most representative scenarios on its website in the form of detailed postal-code-level maps of wind speeds and estimated monetary losses. You can download files containing all scenarios and input them directly into AIR software applications for further analysis.
• AIR has issued real-time estimates of consequences for every U.S. hurricane since 1989’s Hugo. Since then, the service has expanded to include many regions of the world, providing AIR clients with access to fast, comprehensive loss information.

Earthquakes

• For major earthquakes, AIR posts information within hours of the event. For modeled countries, AIR seismologists begin running simulations using available information on magnitude, focal depth, rupture mechanism, fault length, dip angle, and more.
• Then AIR posts detailed maps of intensity and consequences for selected scenarios, so clients can download event sets for all scenarios for further analysis.
• Because there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the actual parameters of an earthquake in its immediate aftermath, AIR seismologists continue to run simulations and post updated estimates of consequences as additional information comes in from seismic networks around the world.

Agriculture alert
AIR and the USDA Risk Management Agency have worked on a partnership project for crop forecasting. AIR provides the agricultural community with access to accurate weather conditions and forecast information for scheduling day-to-day operations and longer-term planning. Through monitoring the meteorological conditions and forecasts affecting select specialty crop growth, producers can better assess the likely progress of a given crop during the growing season. AIR integrates state-of-the-art forecasts and crop-yield models to provide your jurisdiction with information on expected productivity for a crop for the remainder of the growing season.